Strategic Electoral Ridings
Which ridings have the best chance at moving us toward 40% representation?
It’s not just about electing more women and gender-diverse leaders, but the leaders who support our progress towards equality.
Still, identifying districts with stronger chances for diverse representation helps illuminate pathways to inclusive leadership.
KEY
* Incumbent Not Running Again / New District / Vacant
(1) - High Potential Riding
(2) - Moderate Potential Riding
Not Listed - Low Potential Riding
TOTAL
Ridings Rated 1: 112
Ridings Rated 2: 38
Total Potential Ridings: 150
135 seats = 40%
150/338 seats identified = 44%
Learn more about the scoring structure below.
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Last Modified April 17 2025:
Southern Rural Alberta:
Lethbridge (1)
Northern Rural Alberta:
Fort McMurray—Cold Lake (1)
Lakeland (1)
Edmonton:
Edmonton Centre (1)
Edmonton Griesbach (1)
Edmonton Manning (2)
Edmonton Strathcona (1)
Calgary:
Calgary Midnapore (1)
Calgary Nose Hill (1)
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Last Modified April 17 2025:
BC Interior:
Columbia—Kootenay—Southern Rockies (2)
Kelowna (2)
Similkameen—South Okanagan—West Kootenay (1)*
Vernon—Lake Country—Monashee (2)*
Fraser Valley and Eastern Lower Mainland:
Cloverdale—Langley City (1)
Surrey, Richmond & Delta:
Delta (2)*
South Surrey—White Rock (1)
Northern Mainland:
Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam (2)
Port Moody—Coquitlam (1)
Vancouver:
Vancouver Centre (1)
Vancouver East (1)
Vancouver Kingsway (2)
Vancouver Island:
Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke (1)*
Nanaimo—Ladysmith (1)
North Island—Powell River (1)*
Saanich—Gulf Islands (1)
Victoria (1)
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Last Modified April 17 2025:
Rural Manitoba:
Churchill—Keewatinook Aski (1)
Winnipeg:
Elmwood—Transcona (2)
Kildonan—St. Paul (1)
St. Boniface—St. Vital (2)*
Winnipeg Centre (1)
Winnipeg South (2)
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Last modified April 17 2025:
Miramichi-Grand Lake (1)*
Moncton-Dieppe (1)
Saint John-St. Croix (2)
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Last Modified April 17 2025:
Central Newfoundland (2)
Labrador (2)*
Long Range Mountains (1)*
St. John’s East (1)
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Last modified April 17 2025:
Northwest Territories (1)*
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Last modified April 17 2025:
Cumberland - Colchester (2)
Halifax West (1)
South Shore - St. Maragarets (1)
Sydney - Glace Bay (Almost 2)
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Last modified April 17 2025:
Nunavut (1)
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Last Modified March 25 2025:
Ottawa:
Kanata (2)
Orléans (1)
Ottawa—Vanier—Gloucester (1)
Ottawa West—Nepean (1)
Eastern Ontario:
Algonquin—Renfrew—Pembroke (1)
Hastings—Lennox and Addington—Tyendinaga (1)
Lanark—Frontenac (Almost 2)
Prescott—Russell—Cumberland (1)*
Central Ontario:
Peterborough (1)
Southern Durham:Ajax (1)*
Oshawa (1)*
Pickering-Brooklin (1)*
York Region:
Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill (1)
King—Vaughan (1)
Markham—Stouffville (1)
Newmarket—Aurora (1)*
Thornhill (1)
Scarborough:
Scarborough—Agincourt (1)
Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East (1)
North York:
Eglinton—Lawrence (1)*
York Centre (1)
Central Toronto & East York:
Beaches—East York (2)
Davenport (1)
Spadina—Harbourfront (1)*
Toronto Centre (2)
Toronto—Danforth (1)
Toronto St. Paul’s (1)
University—Rosedale (1)
Etobicoke & York:
Humber River—Black Creek (1)
Brampton:
Brampton North—Caledon (1)
Brampton South (1)
Brampton West (1)
Mississauga:
Mississauga East—Cooksville (2)
Mississauga—Erin Mills (1)
Mississauga—Streetsville (1)
Halton:
Burlington (1)
Milton East—Halton Hills South (2)
Oakville East (1)
Oakville West (1)*
Hamilton & Niagara:
Hamilton Mountain (1)
Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas (2)
Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake (Almost 2)
Midwestern Ontario:
Cambridge (1)
Guelph (1)*
Haldimand—Norfolk (1)
Kitchener South—Hespeler (1)
Waterloo (1)
Southwestern Ontario:
Essex (almost 2)
London Centre (almost 2)
London—Fanshawe (1)
London West (1)
Middlesex—London (1)
Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong (1)
Northern Ontario:
Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk (1)*
Kenora—Kiiwetinoong (2)
Nipissing—Timiskaming (1)*
Sault Ste. Marie—Algoma (2)
Sudbury (1)
Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt (2)
Thunder Bay—Superior North (1)
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Last modified April 17 2025:
Cardigan (2)*
Charlottetown (2)
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Last Modified March 25 2025:
Eastern Quebec:
Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis (1)
Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj (1)
Gaspésie—The Magdalen Islands—Listuguj (1)
North Shore & Saguenay
North Shore—Kawawachikamach—Nitassinan (1)
Jonquière (2)
Lac-Saint-Jean (1)
Montmorency—Charlevoix (1)
Quebec City Region:Beauport—Limoilou (1)
Louis-Hébert (2)
Central Quebec:
N/A
Eastern Townships:
Beauce (2)
Compton-Stanstead (1)*
Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—Acton (Almost 2)
Shefford (1)
Sherbrooke (1)
Montérégie:
Beauharnois—Salaberry—Soulanges—Huntingdon (1)
Brossard—Saint-Lambert (1)
Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville (1)*
Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne (1)
Saint John (1)
Northern Montreal and Laval:
Ahuntsic-Cartierville (1)
Alfred-Pellan (2)
Papineau (1)
Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel (1)
Vimy (1)
Eastern Montreal:
Hochelaga—Rosemont-East (1)*
Honoré Mercier (2)*
Laurier—Sainte-Marie (2)
Western Montreal:
Dorval—Lachine—LaSalle (1)
Our Lady of Grace—Westmount (1)
Outremont (1)
Saint-Laurent (1)
Laurentians:
Laurentides—Labelle (1)
The Upper Countries (1)*
Thousand Island River (1)
North River (1)*
Terrebonne (1)
Therese-De Blainville (1)*
Outaouais & Northern Quebec:
Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou (1)
Pontiac—Kitigan Zibi (1)
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Last Modified April 17 2025:
Southern Saskatchewan:
Yorkton—Melville (1)
Northern Saskatchewan:
Battlefords—Lloydminster—Meadow Lake (1)
Carlton Trail—Eagle Creek (1)
Saskatoon West (2)
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Last modified April 17 2025:
N/A
Scoring System
Parties focused on: Liberal, Conservative, NDP, Green, Bloc Québécois
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Male incumbent running for a 2nd term: -2
Male incumbent running for a 3rd+ term: -3
Woman/GD* incumbent running for a 2nd term: +3
Woman/GD incumbent running for a 3rd+ term: +4
Open seat (no incumbent running): +2
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Woman/GD candidate has run federally before (but not elected): +1
Male candidate has run federally before (but not elected): -1
Woman/GD candidate was MP in the past but lost seat and is running again: +1
Male candidate was MP in the past but lost seat and is running again: -1
Woman/GD candidate has run and won at provincial/territorial/municipal level before: +1
Male candidate has run and won at provincial/territorial/municipal level before: -1
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Party of a woman/GD candidate has won in past 3 federal elections: +1 per woman/GD candidate
Woman/GD candidate’s party came within 10% of the winning party in the last election: +2 per woman/GD candidate
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Ratio of women/GD candidates to men candidates in major parties (normalized to ±2 range): -2 to +2
Previous women/GD representation in the riding (past 10 years): +1
Scoring Interpretation
Based on the above key…
(1) - High Potential Ridings scored +5 or higher.
(2) - Moderate Potential Ridings scored +3 or +4
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High chance of electing a woman/GD candidate. The district has strong historical, structural, and political conditions favouring gender-diverse representation.
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A woman/GD candidate has a good chance but still faces some competition or structural barriers.
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Conditions are somewhat favourable, but the race could go either way depending on candidate strength and voter support.
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The environment is not outright hostile, but there are more barriers than advantages.
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Significant structural barriers exist, such as a strong male incumbent, party dynamics, or historical trends against electing women/GD candidates.
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The district is highly resistant to change—long-term male incumbents, weak party competitiveness, or a lack of women/GD candidates make it very unlikely.
*GD = Gender-Diverse